- 比赛开始: Jan 30, 6:00 AM EST
- 论文提交: Feb 3, 9:00 AM EST
- Python 3.11
- 使用
requirements.txt安装依赖：pip install -r requirements.txt
- LaTeX: Overleaf (Link: [贴上你们的 Overleaf 链接])
- https://cn.overleaf.com/6521298236cxqndwxjvtjy#e2bbeb
question(1-5|_prepare): 不同问题对应的文档，先prepare再是question文件- 对于每一个
question(1-5)，可能包含以下子文件夹：description: 存放题目说明与模型实现方案model_description: 存放模型说明paper: 存放相关论文data: 存放数据output: 存放程序输出结果plot: 存放图表test: 存放图表绘制和模型测试文件README.md: 对其包含程序的解释
- 对于每一个
- 建立一个（或多个）数学模型，以计算出每位参赛者在参赛期间所获得的预计粉丝投票数（这些数字是未知且严格保密的）。
- 您的模型是否能准确估算出导致每周淘汰结果的粉丝投票数？并提供衡量一致性指标。
- 您所生成的粉丝投票总数的确定性有多高？这种确定性是否对每位参赛者/每个周都保持一致？提供您对这些估计值确定性的衡量指标。
将您的粉丝投票结果与其余数据相结合，以进行：
- 比较并对比该节目在各季中采用的两种方式所产生结果（即分别采用排名和百分比两种方式，将评委和观众的投票结果综合起来）。如果存在结果差异，那么一种方法是否似乎更倾向于重视观众投票？ 3.考察在特定名人案例中所采用的两种投票方式，这些案例存在“争议”，即评委和观众的意见存在分歧。选择将评委评分和观众投票相结合的方式是否会导致这些参赛者在每个环节的结果都相同？如果再加上让评委每周选择淘汰排名倒数前两名的情侣这一额外方式，会对结果产生何种影响？以下是一些你可以考虑的例子（当然也可能会有其他你所发现的例子）：
- 第二季——杰里·雷斯虽在五周内获得的评委评分最低，但仍获得了亚军的成绩。第四季——比利·雷·赛勒斯最终排名第五，尽管在六周的时间里他的评委评分一直处于倒数位置。
- 第 11 季——布里斯托尔·佩林曾 12 次获得第三名，并且获得评委评分最低的分数。第 27 季——鲍比·博恩斯最终获胜，尽管评委们的评分一直很低
- 根据您的分析，对于未来的演出季，您会推荐采用哪一种方法呢？请说明原因。您是否还会建议加入让评委从排名最后的两对选手中进行选择这一环节？利用包含粉丝投票估计值的数据，构建一个模型，该模型能够分析不同专业舞者的影响力，以及数据中所包含的名人特征（年龄、所属行业等）。这些因素对一名名人的比赛表现究竟有多大的影响呢？它们对法官的评分和球迷的投票影响方式是否相同呢？
- 提议采用另一种制度，即每周由粉丝投票和评委评分相结合的方式。您认为这样一种制度会更加“公平”（或者在某些方面更“出色”，比如能让节目更吸引粉丝）的话，请提出您的建议。阐述为何您的方法应当被节目制作方所采用的理由。
- 撰写一份不超过 25 页的报告，其中应包含您的调查结果，并附上一份一到两页的备忘录，总结您的研究成果，并为《舞动的奇迹》节目的制作方提供关于如何将评委和观众投票相结合的建议，以及对未来季数中如何进行这种结合的建议。
Develop a mathematical model (or models) to produce estimated fan votes (which are unknown and a closely guarded secret) for each contestant for the weeks they competed. o Does your model correctly estimate fan votes that lead to results consistent with who was eliminated each week? Provide measures of the consistency. o How much certainty is there in the fan vote totals you produced, and is that certainty always the same for each contestant/week? Provide measures of your certainty for the estimates.
Use your fan vote estimates with the rest of the data to:
- Compare and contrast the results produced by the two approaches used by the show to combine judge and fan votes (i.e. rank and percentage) across seasons (i.e. apply both approaches to each season). If differences in outcomes exist, does one method seem to favor fan votes more than the other?
- Examine the two voting methods applied to specific celebrities where there was “controversy”, meaning differences between judges and fans. Would the choice of method to combine judge scores and fan votes have led to the same result for each of these contestants? How would including the additional approach of having judges choose which of the bottom two couples to eliminate each week impact the results? Some examples you might consider (there may also be others you identified):
- season 2 –Jerry Rice, runner up despite the lowest judges scores in 5 weeks.
- season 4 – Billy Ray Cyrus was 5th despite last place judge scores in 6 weeks.
- season 11 – Bristol Palin was 3rd with the lowest judge scores 12 times.
- season 27 – Bobby Bones won the despite consistently low judges scores
- Based on your analysis, which of the two methods would you recommend using for future seasons and why? Would you suggest including the additional approach of judges choosing from the bottom two couples?
- Use the data including your fan vote estimates to develop a model that analyzes the impact of various pro dancers as well as characteristics for the celebrities available in the data (age, industry, etc). How much do such things impact how well a celebrity will do in the competition? Do they impact judges scores and fan votes in the same way?
- Propose another system using fan votes and judge scores each week that you believe is more “fair” (or “better” in some other way such as making the show more exciting for the fans). Provide support for why your approach should be adopted by the show producers.
- Produce a report of no more than 25 pages with your findings and include a one- to two-page memo summarizing your results with advice for producers of DWTS on the impact of how judge and fan votes are combined with recommendations for how to do so in future seasons.