Estimating the Direct Impact of Influenza Vaccination and Vaccine-Averted Illnesses Using an Extended Static Compartmental Model

Overview

This repository contains a Microsoft Excel tool with supporting R scripts to estimate the direct impact of influenza vaccination. The tool is an extension of the static compartmental model originally developed by Kostova et al., and builds on previous work documented in the background chapter of the WHO Burden of Disease manual and earlier versions of the tool.

A manuscript describing this extended tool is currently under development. This page will be updated with the citation once it is available.

Enabling Solver (required before first use)

This tool uses Excel's Solver add-in through VBA. You must enable Solver AND add a VBA reference to it before the tool will run. This is a one-time setup.

Windows

Step 1 — Enable the Solver add-in

1. Open Excel.
2. Go to File → Options → Add-ins.
3. At the bottom, next to "Manage: Excel Add-ins", click Go...
4. Check the box for Solver Add-in, then click OK. (You should now see "Solver" on the Data tab in the ribbon.)

Step 2 — Add the Solver reference in VBA

First, show the Developer tab (one-time):

1. Go to File → Options → Customize Ribbon.
2. On the right side, under "Main Tabs", check the box for Developer.
3. Click OK.

Open the VBA editor and add the reference: 4. Click the Developer tab in the ribbon. 5. Click Visual Basic (the first button on the far left). 6. In the VBA editor menu, go to Tools → References... 7. Scroll down and check the box for Solver. 8. Click OK.

Mac

Step 1 — Enable the Solver add-in

1. Open Excel.
2. Go to Tools → Excel Add-ins (in the top menu bar).
3. Check Solver Add-in, then click OK. (You should now see "Solver" on the Data tab.)

Step 2 — Add the Solver reference in VBA

1. Go to Tools → Macro → Visual Basic Editor
2. Once VBA editor is opened, go to Tools → References...
3. Check the box for Solver and click OK.

You're now ready to run the tool.

Running the tool

1. Download the repository by clicking the green Code button and selecting Download ZIP. Extract the folder to a location on your machine.
2. Open Phase 2 data input tool_final.xlsm. When opening the tool, click Enable Content if prompted.
3. On the Inputs tab, follow the instructions to enter the required model parameters.
   • After completing all required inputs, click the Run model button.
   • The results will populate on the Results tab.
   • To generate confidence intervals for the results, the model must be run in R. Before proceeding, save the Excel file (do not change the file name) and close it.
4. Open the R project file Averted_Illness_PhaseII.Rproj to launch RStudio.
5. In RStudio, open Avert_Illness_Calculation.R and run the entire script. Results will automatically export to Phase 2 data input tool_final.xlsm.
6. (Optional) On the Scenarios tab, follow the instructions to input data for modeling different vaccine coverage and deployment scenarios.
   • After completing all required inputs, click the Run scenarios button.
   • The results will populate on the Scenario Results tab.

Tip: Use the Clear inputs button at any time to reset inputs.

Disclaimer

The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this article do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions.

Contact information

Young Moo (Daniel) Yoo, MSPH
Situational Awareness and Modeling (SAM) Team
Global Influenza Branch (GIB)
Influenza Division (ID)
National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD)
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Work address: 602 Webb Gin House Rd, Lawrenceville, GA 30045
Work email: opp8@cdc.gov

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The repository utilizes code licensed under the terms of the Apache Software License and therefore is licensed under ASL v2 or later.

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